Inflation in the United States
Noting the weakest increase in inflation since November 2021, the US CPI released on Tuesday (13) has a positive impact on international and domestic markets, as it paves the way for a calmer monetary tightening thereafter.
In New York, the CPI supports an upward impulse for the three stock indices, with the Nasdaq approaching its operation above 3.20% in the opening moments of trading.
The US public debt securities market did not pass unscathed, also feeling the impact of the data and the realignment of expectations for interest rates as a result.
The T-bills, with a two-year maturity, are experiencing the biggest drop in yields in about a month: yielding their bonds from 4.401% to 4.147% yesterday. In Brazil, the Ibovespa (IBOV) indicator still manages to breathe, rising to 0.5%.
The worst is over in relation to American inflation, rising only 0.1% in the monthly comparison, the lowest result in 12 months, the indicator reduced the accumulated inflation of 12 months from 7.7% in October, to 7.1%.
The result of the day continues the movement left by inflation, after which it reached a peak of 9.0% in month 06 of this year. “The worst is over”, says the chief economist at RPS Capital, Victor Cândido.
The economist highlights the impact of the decline in inflation on goods and energy for the month’s result, as a direct response to the reorganization of value chains. William Castro Alves – Avenue’s chief strategist – highlights a worrying point, related to the accommodation/housing sector, which has shown itself to be less responsive to the downward trend in prices and the complication in consumers’ purchasing power.
50 p.p in December and 0.25 p.p in February. The deceleration of inflation in the November CPI crowns last month’s positive battery and confirms the more moderate trajectory of interest rates as of today’s and tomorrow’s members’ meeting According to the Fed Funds – the union of the depositary financial institutions of the American Meão Bank – There is almost a consensus around the increase of 0.50 p.p in this December meeting, which will take the interest rate to fai xa of 4.25-4.50%.
This positive reading of inflation also influenced agents’ expectations regarding the monetary choice scheduled for February next year. Still regarding the US policy rate, there is more than a 50% chance that the first meeting of 2023 will be on par with the reduced increase of 0.25 p.p. in the base interest rate. In many ways, Willian Castro recalls what Jerome Powell and his colleagues do not let the markets forget: the FED has the mission of bringing inflation back to the target of 2%, still far from the 7.1% registered today.